Hi, I'm Aaron, and I am interested in the process individuals undergo when making decisions under risk and uncertainty, specifically the potentially relevant situational, and psychological factors. I also try to improve our understanding of humans' perception of uncertainty, and how people react to different types of uncertainty (e.g., epistemic and aleatory).

On the other hand, I am working on statistical and methodological questions. Specifically, I investigate how we can assess psychologically relevant variables in a situation itself, using ecological momentary assessments (EMA) and think aloud protocols. Finally, I am intrigued by the difference between estimation and prediction for drawing inference, and modelling-approaches from complexity science.

Outside of these main focus areas, I have a broad interest in topics from cognitive and social psychology, including collective intelligence, group processes, heuristics and biases, deception, or opinion dynamics.

Education

• 2023 - today: PhD, University of Zurich, Switzerland
• 2021 - 2023: Msc Psychology (research), University of Amsterdam, Netherlands
• 2017 - 2021: Bsc Psychology, University of Heidelberg, Germany

Recent publications and preprints

Bartoš, F., Sarafoglu, A., Godman, H. R., (...), Lob, A. B., (...) (2023). Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2310.04153

Lob, A. B., Chakir, N., van Munster van Heuven, L., & Verschuere, B. (in press). Does (biasing) Nonverbal Information Deteriorate the Accuracy of the Take-the-Best Heuristic for Deception-detection? Journal of Applied Cognitive Psychology. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/6rpc7

Pauer, S., Ruutjens, B. T., Brick, C., Lob, A. B., Buttlar, B., Noordewier, M. K., Schneider, I. K., & van Harreveld, F. (2024). Is the Effect of Trust on Risk Perceptions a Matter of Knowledge, Control, and Time? An Extension and Direct-Replication Attempt of Siegrist and Cvetkovich (2000). Social Psychological and Personality Science, 15(8). https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506241263884

Social media

• Mastodon: @aaronlob@mstdn.science
• Bluesky: @aaronlob.bsky.social
• Twitter: @aaronblob